How likely are you to die of Covid-19? The new AI tool can give you an extremely accurate estimate

The first vaccine may have been given, but the threat of the disease has remained as real since the beginning of this year.

Even if businesses and stores open, the threat remains as real as ever – and now a somewhat morbid tool will allow you to calculate how likely you are to die if you get caught. Covid-19.

Researchers, including one of Indian descent, have developed a new online computer for estimating the individual and community risk of dying from Covid-19.

The study, published in the journal Nature medicine, revealed that the computer will be useful to public health authorities for assessing mortality risks in different communities and for prioritizing certain groups for vaccination as Covid-19 vaccines become available.

The algorithm underlying the computer uses information from existing large studies to estimate risk Covid-19 mortality for individuals according to age, sex, sociodemographic factors and a variety of different health conditions.

Risk estimates apply to people in the general population who are not currently infected and capture factors associated with both future risks of infection and post-infection complications.

“Our computer is a more quantitative approach and should complement other proposed qualitative guidelines for determining individual and community risks and vaccine allocation,” said study lead author Nilanjan Chatterjee of Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in the United States.

The model-based computer is available online for both public health officials and interested parties.

Allows the user to determine individual risk based on factors such as age, gender, race / ethnicity, and medical history and can be used to define risk for a group, such as a particular community, corporation, or university, based on a mixture of factors relevant that define the group.

In their paper, the research team used their computer to describe the distribution of risks to the entire US population, showing, for example, that only about 4% of the high-risk population – defined as a risk five times higher than average. USA – – is expected to contribute almost 50% of all deaths.

Researchers have also shown that population-level risk varies considerably from city to city and county to county.

“For example, the percentage of the adult population that exceeds the risk threshold five times varies from 0.4% in Layton, Utah, to 10.7% in Detroit, Michigan,” Chatterjee said.

The computer allows users to calculate the risk of mortality of individuals by combining information about factors at the individual level with the dynamics of the pandemic at the community level, as available from a wide variety of forecasting models.

Thus, when a large wave of infections strikes a population, risk estimates for individuals will increase in that community.

Currently, the tool is updated weekly to incorporate information about the dynamics of the state-level pandemic.

This is not the only tool that estimates you Covid-19 risk. Earlier in November, a tool allowed people to assess their risk of attending meetings where they live using real-time infection data.

Read more: Going to a limited social gathering? This tool allows you to calculate the risk of Covid-19 Infection

If you were to be in a group of ten people in the US capital Washington today, the risk that a person has Covid-19 it would be 18 percent. The equivalent figure in Paris is 32%.

The probability is estimated to be at least one Covid-19 a positive person will be present at a given event in a particular district or county after the user has entered the assembly size using a slide tool.

(With IANS entries)

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